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Richard Reeve

21 Days Ago

Flatten The Curve

This is an extension of the previous Post "Now Wash Your Hands" which is located here and contains a huge amount of links, data and discussion on the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic: https://fineartamerica.com/showmessages.php?messageid=5202913

Abbie suggested that one was closed down, and I agree, as it was getting too unwieldy, but you will still have read-only access to it using the link above (or just looking for it)

I was unable to edit the original post after 24 hours so could not add guidance after the discussion took off.

Again, previous post, with huge list of resources, can be find here:Now Wash Your Hands is HERE






This new thread is to discuss information related to the COVID-19 pandemic as follows:

1. Research relating to treatment and healthcare (please include link to direct research IF possible)
2. Updates regarding the ongoing situation - personal updates are particularly welcome (by me, at least), however harrowing, as it is the real face of the pandemic!
3. Sharing of good, scientifically plausible practices (with relevant evidence where possible) that will protect us
4. If I think of more I'll add them in the thread as this gets locked after 24 hours and I cannot edit it further.


I don't really like negatives, but this new thread took off tangentially very quickly while I was working, so:

it is NOT a place to discuss:

(a) POLITICS,
(b) RELIGION,
(c) RACIAL STEREOTYPING,
(d) APPORTIONING BLAME TO A PARTICULAR GROUP,
(e) PROMOTING CONSPIRACY THEORIES OR OTHER OFF-THE-WALL CR@P,
(f) PROMOTING SNAKE-OIL THERAPIES

Please play nicely. I am asking Abbie to eject anyone who doesn't!


This is meant to be a place to share information that someone else will find useful

** Please THINK before you POST! **
- what is the SOURCE of my information?
- is this really likely to be true? (perhaps do a bit of background reading, follow a link)
- am I arguing for the sake of it?
- am I actually ADDING to the discussion?


I truly appreciate all the posts to date and the information that has been shared. Thank you, ALL

And here's my final comment, which I have toned down considerably for the sake of those of a more refined disposition than me:

If you don't like the rules, then don't participate. It's simple. Reading this discussion is NOT mandatory. It doesn't appear on your Home Page or get sent to your email. Please sigh, ignore and more on to an alternative place of your choosing. I won't be offended.

No, really, I won't!

If you decide to stay, THANK YOU!

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

Reply Order

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Edward Fielding

21 Days Ago

The stark reality is there are not enough ICU units to handle a crush of cases. You don't want to get sick and you don't want to cause someone else's death due to your selfish acts.

Social distance yourself.

 

Richard Reeve

21 Days Ago

Please continue any discussion from "Now Wash Your Hands" here.

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

David Bridburg

21 Days Ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/coronavirus-in-young-people-is-it-dangerous-data-show-it-can-be?srnd=premium

Turns out from data out of the EU and US, younger people 20s into the 40s are not impervious to this disease and are falling seriously sick.

Bloomberg is usually for pay, but at the very least some stories that involve major issues around CV seem to be free access. The company has complete control over that.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Tibor Tivadar Kui

21 Days Ago

So we continue here...

Daily dose of good news:
"Sunlight or, more specifically, solar UV radiation (UV) acts as the principal natural virucide in the environment."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

 

Richard Reeve

21 Days Ago

"The stark reality is there are not enough ICU units to handle a crush of cases. You don't want to get sick and you don't want to cause someone else's death due to your selfish acts." - Edward

That is true - it is easy to forget that people still need routine or emergency medical treatment that is totally unrelated to COVID-19 and they will be impacted greatly, too as hospitals are overwhelmed.

Now is not the time to break your hip! :-(

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

David Bridburg

21 Days Ago

Tibor,

Yep, I generally do not follow this in any depth, but I believe water can be and has been purified for years using UV.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Abbie Shores

21 Days Ago

Thank you everyone.

 

Edward Fielding

21 Days Ago

Richard - Yeah, I saw a disgusting post on another thread suggesting the virus "run it's course". Obviously the poster suffers from some delusion that they won't be personally impacted and has no concern for healthcare workers or their fellow citizens.

"running it's course" means thousands dying and many dying simply due to lack of access to facilities that are typically available.

 

Tibor Tivadar Kui

21 Days Ago

David,

Absolutely. On industrial scale UV light is widely used for water disinfection. I know that from first hand. But now I am bringing this up for the following reason: many people tend to misunderstand the social distancing and self isolation as staying in home...they should stay at home, but not inside. That's my point. Especially that in northern hemisphere it is spring, and the sunshine is gradually becoming stronger in UV component.

 

Abbie Shores

21 Days Ago

Edward, that's actually how the UK was dealing with it until people and the WHO screamed at them

 

David Bridburg

21 Days Ago

Tibor,

Yes, it is the angle of the sunlight..Perhaps more than the warmth. Meaning a good angle on the hemisphere gets more of the effect.

I think this is also related to how much vit D we produce in our skin as the tilt of the earth changes visa vie the sun.



Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Edward Fielding

21 Days Ago

Maybe take the "sunlight is the cure-all" discussion to it's own thread? Florida "the sunshine state" is about to explode with cases. Italy has plenty of sunshine.

 

David Bridburg

21 Days Ago

Dont be obnoxious.

addition
Ed,

Thanks for editing your comments, to involve problems in Florida.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Tibor Tivadar Kui

21 Days Ago

True, the pro-vitamin D is activated in skin by radiation. And it is helpful for the immune system. Also..UV light is widely used in clinical disinfection, and in food industry and food markets. Don't be afraid of the sunlight and fresh air.

 

Mike Savad

21 Days Ago

right now they are out of q-tips... yeah, that wood stick with the cotton on the end. they can't make the test kit without it.


----Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

 

David Bridburg

21 Days Ago

D, a little zinc, and a tad of copper......daily and for the latter two weekly.

Keeping the immune system a little raised, perhaps. It might be a good idea.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Tibor Tivadar Kui

21 Days Ago

"Maybe take the "sunlight is the cure-all" discussion to it's own thread?"

Uhm...some people found very strange that humanity needs to be educated on some elementary hygiene ..such as "wash your hands"
Now I found many people who does not know anything about the therapeutic effect of sunlight. Many people in my country are taking ad literam stay in home....

The sunlight therapy is being used since the dawn of humanity. And modern science still approves that.

Edward , have you ever been in an operating room to observe how overall sterilization is done??

No matter how much sunshine a place has, if people are avoiding it by all means it might have zero effect.

 

David Bridburg

21 Days Ago

Tibor,

Don?

Not sure he is up yet. Midwest. Or he has busy mornings.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Richard Reeve

21 Days Ago

Sunlight is a great thing - in moderation.

UV sterilizes by breaking down the weak bonds in DNA/RNA. We have UV sterilization lamp for our well water and we used UV lamps in the microbiology labs to sterilize surfaces. Problem is that it can also cause us issues - e.g., melanoma - for the same reason. We literally have "thick skins" of dead skin cells, so our ever shedding epidermis protects us to a large extent (as does melanin production) which is why we also need to use sun screen.

That being said, sunlight also stimulates endogenous (inside our body) Vitamin D production and Vitamin D has been shown to help immune response (even some studies with SARA-Cov 2 coronavirus which may be on old thread).

So, to Tibor's point - yes we will need to get outside if we can still maintain social distancing as a bit of sunshine has therapeutic benefit as well as the mental benefit of being "outdoors"

[Source - me]

JMHO!

Off to work (upstairs) now, to earn money while I can as the rest of the year looks a bit lean ;-(

Be good!


~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood


 

Edward Fielding

21 Days Ago

Get outside, go for a walk, all good for one's well being. Although not possible in crowded cities where evening stroll socializing is the tradition.

Keep in mind that sunlight has existed long before Covid-19.

Back to my role as support for the hospital command station that has become my front entranceway.

 

Alison Frank

21 Days Ago

Things I've been doing (besides the regular hand washing/social distancing):

Taking a daily vitamin (with zinc and a little copper, thanks David B.!)
Taking fish oil caps
Using a humidifier at night
Gargling with kosher salt and warm water
Using aquaphor on my hands, especially knuckles which seem particularly prone to dryness/cracking
Stretching/strength exercises in the garage
Wiping down the interior of my car
Spraying all the light switches/door knobs/handles in the house daily
Keep a roll of paper towels in the bathroom for drying hands
Making more crockpot meals
Trying not to worry (which is hard for me)

 

Drew

21 Days Ago

Richard for years, I built and ran computer model simulations involving human activity on a simulated geographical grid.

The Exponential population growth curve is a mathematical function representing any rapid growth of any contagion a given population can be exposed to.

Isolation is the only measure to reduce the spread. The isolated pockets will experience the same scaled down version of the said growth curve until saturation of the isolated contagion is reached.

 

Drew

21 Days Ago

Here is a link
The population growth curve is a universal constant applicable to many similar types of simulations.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-biology/chapter/environmental-limits-to-population-growth/

 

Steven Ralser

21 Days Ago

I’m not sure if this has been posted before, but this article has some simulations which show how important social distancing is

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR038d9GA8HhEvDMUPUqMLhZVfiTxNFpy0fDB_CuL0Iv8U2YTUcseU_IaaA

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Bradford Martin

21 Days Ago

Thanks to Richard for the discussions which are a safe haven from the social media nutso posts. And to all who have contributed. As a biologist with some training in virology It has been difficult to listen to all the stuff on FB etc without trying to correct everyone.. I joined some CV groups which quickly deteriorated

I supplement my income as a food delivery driver. I usually keep a good stock of hand sanitizer and 2 concentrations of alcohol. The sanitizer is for use in the car, after pick ups and deliveries. I started getting low a month ago and have not been able to restock since then. I have alternatives and as a former batch chemist I know how to mix my own if I had alcohol, but I am somewhat perplexed as to why such a shortage when we have plenty of alcohol to mix with fuel and it is made in North America. The 2 companies I diorve for are requring we have sanitizer but neither have actually come through with a supply as promised.

 

Don Northup

2 Hours Ago

Mario,

I disagreed with him at the time. Once we bend the curve more substantially, and this thing dies down, a policy like that *may* be feasible. Protect the elderly and those that are more at risk and get the rest of the country back to work and onto something resembling normal daily life.

Cheers

 

David Bridburg

2 Hours Ago

When will it be implemented?
Immediately.

Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?
The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate.
However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not

Don,

You are misreading that, "being the underlying cause more often than not". That is when the new codes are implemented. Not prior.

Prior if you died of heart disease while having CV, the listed cause of death was possibly only heart disease. That is what is being changed going forward. CV will be listed as primary.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Don Northup

2 Hours Ago

Yuri,

The feds have been stating social distancing is working in Cali and Washington state (and the stats seem to show as much) so take a look at when those policies were implemented.

I saw a study that shows the more recent explosion of cases was due to travelers from Europe so we should have cut travel from those places much earlier than we did. Of course, many people freaked out when we banned travel from much of Europe just like they did when we banned some travel from China.

Cheers

 

Mario Carta

2 Hours Ago

Don, I totally agree with your last post as to what seems to be the best most logical course of action. :-)

 

Don Northup

2 Hours Ago

You are misreading that, "being the underlying cause more often than not". That is when the new codes are implemented. Not prior.

I am not misreading anything and the policy is implemented as the death toll is still on the rise. The policy was actually implemented back on March 24th.

Stop arguing with everything like you are the knower of all facts ---> which obviously you are not. If you don't read it on Yahoo News or your other favorite lamestream media sites you don't believe it. If you read it on a site that is not on your pet site list then you seem to automatically discount the info and/or call it propaganda. So sad.

Cheers

 

Don Northup

2 Hours Ago

If I lived in NY I would be pissed.



Cheers



 

Yuri Tomashevi

2 Hours Ago

Did anybody see statistics on the percentage of cases in the country/state by the time elapsed between the “date of the beginning of the epidemic explosion” and the date of the introduction of country/state-wide quarantine measures?

 
 

David Bridburg

2 Hours Ago

Don,

It has nothing to do with my knowledge. You are making things up that only you see or now believe. Attacking me on that is crap.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Don Northup

1 Hour Ago

Social Distancing scoreboard...

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

Cheers

 

Don Northup

1 Hour Ago

You are making things up that only you see or now believe.

I have not made anything up so stop posting fake news and misinformation and reread the CDC guidelines. Instead of repeating myself again, I will quote Richard.

This implies over counting. The way the ICD coding works is to collect disease terms and then roll up these individual terms into an overarching term for subsequent analysis. This memo asks coroners to code to a term which implies COVID-19 relationship. Therefore it implies we could be over counting.

Cheers

 

Richard Reeve

1 Hour Ago

Fact - the true figures for infection and death are not particularly accurate one way or another but they are all we have.

Fighting over a relatively minor point, to which no-one has the answer will achieve nothing,

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

Don Northup

1 Hour Ago

Exactly.

 

Richard Reeve

1 Hour Ago

"Social Distancing scoreboard..." - Don

Another great find. I am so glad Florida is scoring an A- they need it with their demographics

~Richard
#NowWashYourHands #InformationIsPower
#ContainTheSpread #FlattenTheCurve
#GiveDrJohnCampbellAKnighthood

 

Don Northup

1 Hour Ago

For those that may have missed it, you can drill down to the state and county level on the social distancing scoreboard.

Here is the link again.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

Cheers

 

Don Northup

1 Hour Ago

Here are Google's mobility reports. They don't appear to be as frequently updated as the unicast data but they do include some additional info.

You can grab the PDF for the US or your individual state or country.

Yes, you are being tracked if you have a smartphone and you have your location history turned on.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Cheers

 

David Bridburg

52 Minutes Ago

Richard,

What happened to SARS and MERS in those two rounds? Why or how did they disappear?

Did they simply run their course? Were human efforts major? But the two diseases simply died down or died out?

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Don Northup

48 Minutes Ago

For $40 you can buy your answer. (You may have trouble finding a copy)

SARS: how a global epidemic was stopped

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2636331/

https://apps.who.int/bookorders/anglais/detart1.jsp?codlan=1&codcol=52&codcch=82#

CDC Timeline:

https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

Just say no to Civets. ;-)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 resulted in more than 8000 cases and 800 deaths. SARS was eventually contained by means of syndromic surveillance, prompt isolation of patients, strict enforcement of quarantine of all contacts, and in some areas top-down enforcement of community quarantine. By interrupting all human-to-human transmission, SARS was effectively eradicated

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext

MERS was not easily passed from human to human so it was contained with much less effort than COVID-19

Cheers

 

David Bridburg

33 Minutes Ago

I read in HK SARS surprised them. The government was not expecting the spread. Masks were not adopted right away. That was a mistake.

All of that goes to what humans did.

But the bug its self may have had a behavior.

Cold bugs come and go. Coronas are set of cold bugs and such. Regardless of the human toll of CV.

So a better question is, do we know why a cold bug simply goes away? Regardless of herd immunity. Because humans develop low immunity levels to Coronas.

I am looking for an insight into the virus. Not human behavior.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Don Northup

23 Minutes Ago

SARS and MERS are not as easily transmissible human to human so once the human to human transmission (and animal to human transmission) was stopped the epidemic was basically stopped. Since 2003, 9 cases of SARS have been reported, but they were from lab accidents in Singapore and Taiwan and from exposure to an animal source. Of course, we don't need any more lab accidents.

MERS is still a threat...

WHO and colleagues from the University of Oxford, Imperial College London and Institut Pasteur* have estimated that, since 2016, 1 465 cases of Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and between 300 and 500 deaths may have been averted due to accelerated global efforts to detect infections early and reduce transmission.

In a research letter published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases on 8 July 2019, the researchers analyze case-based data on laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infections reported to WHO since 2012. The total number of cases averted, when taking into account reduced camel-to-human and human-to-human transmission, was estimated at 507 (189–967) in 2016, 507 (189–967) in 2017, and 451 (191–855) through September 2018, totaling 1,465 (895–2,165) cases averted and 293 (179–433) expected deaths averted (under the assumption of a 20% CFR) from 2016 through September 2018. Assuming a 35.5% CFR, this estimate corresponds to 520 (318–769) expected deaths averted.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/worldwide-reduction-in-mers-cases-and-deaths-since-2016/en/

Cheers

 

David Bridburg

14 Minutes Ago

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

Certain ideas from early February are dated, but this winds up getting into where the virus is going.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Don Northup

9 Minutes Ago

Cold bugs come and go. Coronas are set of cold bugs and such. Regardless of the human toll of CV.

So a better question is, do we know why a cold bug simply goes away?


With other coronavirus strains, the antibodies produced during infection give immunity to the specific virus for months or years. Most scientists assume that will also apply to the COVID-19 strains.

Cheers

 

David Bridburg

4 Minutes Ago

Don,

Read the link above. It was an eye opener on the the common cold, Coronas and CV immunity rates.

The info is towards the bottom. It is an easy read.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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David Bridburg

2 Minutes Ago

https://www.yahoo.com/news/most-york-coronavirus-cases-came-120729916.html

Most New York Coronavirus cases came from Europe, genomes show.

There is a video on the link and a write up. The tests were done by a few different research teams.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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Don Northup

2 Minutes Ago

I read that statnews article weeks ago...it may have been posted to the original thread but I can't remember for sure.

Cheers

 

Don Northup

1 Minute Ago

Most New York Coronavirus cases came from Europe, most genomes show.

Yes, I mentioned that an hour or two ago in a reply to Yuri.

Cheers

 

David Bridburg

57 Seconds Ago

It does not matter if it was posted a few weeks ago.

The info needs repeating. While the top of the articled linked from Feb is outdated in part, the information on immunity is important to us now.

Dave Bridburg
Bridburg.com
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